The U.S. consumer price growth rate exceeded 9% in June, the highest in 41 years, and the U.S. Federal Reserve seems to be debating whether to raise its key interest rate by 75bp (1bp = 0.01 percentage point) or 100bp at this month’s meeting.

Immediately after the announcement of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June, betting on a 100bp hike was the main focus in the interest rate futures market. As CPI figures came out on the 13th (local time), concerns over high-intensity tightening in the Federal Fund (FF) interest rate futures market, reflecting more than 80% of the possibility of 100bp in July, captivated the market.

However, when Federal Reserve Bank President James Vlad and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller announced their support for a 75bp increase at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in July, the main index of the U.S. stock market, which had been on a sharp decline, turned around.

However, there is still room for a 100bp hike in July as Waller said he would also open the possibility of a bigger rate hike if the data for the next two weeks, such as retail sales and housing indicators, are strong.

◆ University of Michigan’s expected inflation, cited as the background of June’s decision to “Giant Step”

As a result, the market is also paying keen attention to future indicators. In particular, attention is being paid to expected inflation (Jevich) at the University of Michigan in July, which is scheduled to be announced on the 15th.

The Fed launched a “Giant Step (75bp Increase)” last month, breaking the market’s expectation that it would take a “big step (50bp increase)” when expected inflation for 5 to 10 years, which was surveyed by the University of Michigan, was high.